Binomial retention probability 1 − (1−p)^(2N) for an allele among N founders, expected copy number, drift variance, copy-number distribution, and neutral fixation probability. Derived from Mayr 1942, Hartl & Clark 2007, StatPearls. Educational use only.
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Key facts
Category
Education
Input types
number
Output type
json
Sample coverage
4
API ready
Yes
Overview
The Founder Effect Allele Retention Probability calculator estimates whether an allele with source frequency p is retained among 2N gene copies from N diploid founders. It also reports allele loss probability, expected copy number, drift variance, copy-number distribution, and neutral fixation probability for educational population-genetics analysis.
When to use
Estimate the probability that a source-population allele survives a population-founding event.
Compare allele retention and loss across different founder counts or source frequencies.
Explore how genetic drift affects founder-generation allele frequencies and later neutral fixation.
How it works
1Enter the number of diploid founders, N, and the allele frequency, p, in the source population.
2The calculator treats the founding event as binomial sampling across 2N gene copies.
3It calculates retention as 1 − (1−p)^(2N), loss as (1−p)^(2N), and expected copies as 2Np.
4The JSON result also includes drift variance, the copy-number distribution, and neutral fixation probability based on the retained copy count.
Use cases
Population genetics lessons demonstrating binomial sampling, genetic drift, and founder effects.
Conservation genetics comparisons involving small founding populations and rare alleles.
Educational analysis of founder mutations and why a retained rare allele can become more common after population isolation.
Examples
1. Pingelap-style founding event: 20 founders and p = 0.05
Population genetics student
Background
A teaching example models a small founding population of approximately 20 diploid founders and an allele with source frequency 0.05.
Problem
Estimate whether the allele is present in the 40 founder gene copies and quantify the expected founding effect.
How to use
Enter 20 for Founder count, 0.05 for Source allele frequency, and 4 for Decimal Places.