7%/年 → 70 法则估计 10,精确值 10.24(误差 −2.39%) 每年增长 7% 的种群:70 法则给出 T̂ = 10 年,而精确周期复利需要 ln2/ln1.07 = 10.24 年(连续复利为 9.90)。里程碑表显示 ×4 需 20.49 年、×8 需 30.73 年——注意 4 倍时间超过翻倍时间的 2 倍,因为周期利率是离散复利。从初始 100 出发,种群在 20.49 年达到约 400、30.73 年达到约 800。{"result":"Doubling time at +7%/period: rule-of-70 estimate 10 vs exact 10.24 (error −2.39%); continuous 9.9. ×2 at 10.24, ×4 at 20.49, ×8 at 30.73, ×16 at 40.98.","metadata":{"mode":"doubling","estimate":10,"exact":10.24,"continuous":9.9,"errorPct":-2.39,"milestones":[{"factor":2,"time":10.24,"value":200}]}}
每年 −3% 衰减 → 半衰期:估计 23.33,精确 22.76 每年损失 3% 的衰减资源:70 法则给出半衰期估计 70/3 = 23.33,而精确周期衰减需 ln0.5/ln0.97 = 22.76 年(+2.53% 误差——法则此时高估)。里程碑表按减半展开:÷2 在 22.76、÷4 在 45.51、÷8 在 68.27——存量 10000 到 45.51 年降至约 2500、68.27 年降至约 1250。{"result":"Half-life at −3%/period: rule-of-70 estimate 23.33 vs exact 22.76 (error +2.53%); continuous 23.1. ÷2 at 22.76, ÷4 at 45.51, ÷8 at 68.27, ÷16 at 91.03.","metadata":{"mode":"halving","estimate":23.33,"exact":22.76,"continuous":23.1,"errorPct":2.53,"milestones":[{"factor":0.5,"time":22.76,"value":5000}]}}