Kondratieff Wave Visualization

Interactive Economic Cycle Theory Visualization

Mathematical Model

lnYt = α + βt + ΣγiDi + εt
Yₜ Long-term real GDP or commodity prices
t Time trend
Dᵢ Exogenous breakpoint dummy variables
γᵢ Breakpoint coefficients testing 50-60 cycle significance

HP Filter (λ=10000)

Using Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract 60-120 year frequency wave components, separating trend and cyclical components

Kondratieff Wave Chart

2026
Prosperity
Recession
Depression
Recovery

Five Kondratieff Waves

Wave Time Period Technology Characteristics Duration
First Wave 1782-1845 Textile/Steam Industrial Revolution beginnings, mechanized production 63年
Second Wave 1845-1892 Steel/Railway Heavy industry development, railway network expansion 47年
Third Wave 1892-1948 Electricity/Chemical Widespread electrification, rise of chemical industry 56年
Fourth Wave 1948-1991 Automobile/Computer Mass production, information technology emerging 43年
Fifth Wave 1991-现在 Information Technology Internet revolution, digital economy Ongoing

Current Position Analysis (2026)

Current Phase

Depression

2015-现在

Characteristics

  • Economic growth slowing
  • Technology saturation
  • AI and new energy technology emerging
  • Globalization facing challenges

Projection

Projected Bottom

2025-2028

K-wave trough, old technology benefits exhausted

Sixth Wave

2028-2050+

New prosperity driven by AI + New Energy + Life Sciences