New Economics of Industrial Policy

Juhasz, Lane, Rodrik (2023-2024)

Reka Juhasz UBC / Industrial Policy Group
Nathan Lane LSE / Industrial Policy Group
Dani Rodrik Harvard Kennedy School

The Core Triad Framework

The new economics of industrial policy emphasizes three interconnected dimensions: market failures (rationale), state capacity and political incentives (feasibility), and policy design with governance (implementation).

Policy Rationale

Market failures provide justification for intervention: externalities, coordination failures, information asymmetries, credit constraints

Political Feasibility

State capacity + political incentives determine if policies can be implemented: bureaucratic quality, interest group dynamics, institutional constraints

Policy Implementation

Policy design + governance structures shape outcomes: targeting, conditionality, sunset clauses, monitoring mechanisms

Triad Interaction Dynamics

Rationale + Feasibility Legitimate & Viable Policy
Feasibility + Implementation Executable Policy
Rationale + Implementation Well-Designed Policy
All Three Aligned Effective Industrial Policy

Core Reference

"The New Economics of Industrial Policy"
NBER Working Paper No. 31538 (2023)
Annual Review of Economics 16: 213-242 (2024)

This framework shifts focus from debating whether industrial policy works to understanding when, how, and under what conditions it can be effective.

Evolution of Industrial Policy Theory

From traditional market-failure based arguments to a comprehensive framework incorporating empirical evidence, political economy constraints, and governance capacity.

Dimension Traditional Theory New Economics
Core Explanation Market failures Empirical evidence + Political economy + Governance
Purpose Explain why intervene Explain when, how, under what conditions
Methods Theoretical models + Case studies Modern econometrics + Political analysis + Text/LLM tools
Policy Tools Subsidies, tariffs Institutional design, Conditional support, Exit mechanisms
Focus Economic efficiency Political feasibility + Implementation capacity
Evidence Base Descriptive cases Causal identification + Cross-country panels

Core Research Topics

Evidence-First Approach

  • Difference-in-differences
  • Panel data analysis
  • Quasi-experimental designs
  • Input-output network analysis

Political Economy Constraints

  • Benefit concentration vs cost dispersion
  • Interest group capture
  • Electoral cycles
  • Institutional veto players

Tools & Governance

  • Institutional arrangements
  • Cluster development
  • Conditional support
  • Sunset clauses & exit mechanisms

State Capacity

  • Bureaucratic quality
  • Information gathering
  • Implementation capability
  • Coordination mechanisms

Topic Deep Dive

Click on a topic card above to explore details

Global Industrial Policy Cases

Historical and contemporary examples of industrial policy implementation across different contexts and development levels.

KR

South Korea

1960s-1970s

Heavy and Chemical Industry Drive - Targeted subsidies, chaebol support, export discipline

Export discipline Chaebol system State-led finance
IT

Italy

1950s-1990s

Southern Italy industrial policy - State holdings, infrastructure investment, mixed results

Regional policy State holdings Mixed outcomes
US

United States

2022-2025

CHIPS Act - Semiconductor reshoring, large-scale subsidies, technology nationalism

Semiconductor Reshoring Security focus
EU

European Union

2024 Update

Green Deal Industrial Plan - Climate-focused industrial policy, carbon border adjustment

Green transition CBAM Subsidy control
CN

China

1980s-Present

Comprehensive industrial policy - SEZs, state coordination, Made in China 2025

SEZs State capacity Tech upgrading
LA

Colombia & Brazil

2000s-Present

Targeted export support - Sector-specific interventions, productivity programs

Export support Productivity Sector targeting

Click on a case card to view detailed analysis

Policy Evaluation Process

A systematic approach to designing, implementing, and evaluating industrial policy.

1

Identify Market Failure

Diagnose the specific market failure: externalities, coordination failures, information gaps, or credit constraints

Clear diagnosis Vague rationale
2

Assess Political Feasibility

Evaluate stakeholder interests, institutional constraints, and implementation capacity

Aligned incentives Capture risk
3

Design Policy Mix

Select appropriate instruments: subsidies, tax incentives, regulations, or direct provision

Tailored instruments One-size-fits-all
4

Establish Governance

Create monitoring mechanisms, accountability structures, and sunset clauses

Clear accountability Weak oversight
5

Implement & Monitor

Deploy policy with continuous data collection and performance tracking

Data-driven Black box
6

Adjust or Exit

Evaluate outcomes, modify approach, or terminate unsuccessful programs

Adaptive learning Sunk cost trap

Policy Design Simulator

Explore how different conditions affect policy recommendations

3

Policy Recommendation

Adjust parameters to generate recommendation

Risk Assessment

Challenges and Risks

Key challenges that industrial policy must navigate to be effective.

Political Complexity

Electoral cycles, interest group dynamics, and institutional fragmentation can derail well-designed policies

Government Failure

Policy capture, rent-seeking, resource misallocation, and bureaucratic incompetence

Developing Country Constraints

Limited state capacity, weak institutions, data scarcity, and external pressures

Spillovers & Sustainability

International spillovers, environmental impacts, and long-term fiscal sustainability

Trade Retaliation

Subsidy races, WTO disputes, and geopolitical tensions from industrial policy

Measurement & Evaluation

Attribution problems, counterfactual construction, and long evaluation horizons

Research Methods Toolbox

Modern empirical methods for studying industrial policy effectiveness.

01

Econometric Methods

  • Difference-in-Differences (DiD)
  • Synthetic Control
  • Regression Discontinuity
  • Instrumental Variables
Example: Comparing regions with/without policy exposure
02

Causal Inference

  • Potential Outcomes Framework
  • Selection on Observables
  • Natural Experiments
  • Randomized Trials (rare)
Example: Exploiting policy timing variations
03

Text Analysis / LLM

  • Policy Document Analysis
  • Sentiment & Topic Models
  • LLM-Assisted Coding
  • Automated Classification
Example: Parsing industrial policy announcements
04

Political Quantification

  • Interest Group Indices
  • Institutional Quality Scores
  • Political Event Databases
  • Elite Network Analysis
Example: Measuring lobbying intensity

Key Data Sources

OECD STAN Industrial statistics
World Bank Development indicators
UNCTAD Trade & investment
WIOD Input-output tables