# 鲍莫尔成本病

不平衡增长的两部门交互式模型 — 为什么服务越来越贵而商品越来越便宜

> 标准页面: https://elysiatools.com/zh/visualizations/baumol-cost-disease

- **分类:** Math

## 概述

Interactive two-sector model of unbalanced productivity growth demonstrating why services keep getting more expensive while goods get cheaper. Based on Baumol & Bowen's 1966 model dividing the economy into a progressive sector (manufacturing, tech) with productivity growth gP and a stagnant sector (education, healthcare, arts) with growth gS. Wages rise at rate gP across both sectors because workers compete in the same labor market. Unit labor cost in the stagnant sector rises as e^(gP−gS)·t — exponentially — creating ever-widening cost divergence. Features four synchronized visualizations: (1) Unit labor cost comparison showing progressive vs stagnant sector divergence; (2) Productivity index trajectories; (3) Relative price ratio (service/good) with exponential growth; (4) Stacked area labor allocation showing structural shift toward services. Adjustable parameters: gP=0.5-8%, gS=0-4%, wage growth w=0.5-8%, simulation horizon 10-100 years, initial service labor share 10-80%. Statistics panel tracks cost gap multiplier, final service labor share, relative price ratio, and GDP per worker growth. Education covers the two-sector model, the string quartet example, structural shift mechanics, healthcare and education cost escalation, eldercare challenges, policy implications, and whether AI can cure cost disease. 8 languages (zh, en, es, fr, de, ru, pt, ja).

## 相关内容

- [零级反应 - Zero-Order Reaction](https://elysiatools.com/zh/visualizations/zero-order-reaction): 零级反应动力学和浓度随时间变化的交互式可视化
- [一级反应 - First-Order Reaction](https://elysiatools.com/zh/visualizations/first-order-reaction): 一级反应动力学和指数浓度衰减的交互式可视化
- [二级反应 - Second-Order Reaction](https://elysiatools.com/zh/visualizations/second-order-reaction): 二级反应动力学和双分子碰撞动力学的交互式可视化
- [阿伦尼乌斯方程 - Arrhenius Equation](https://elysiatools.com/zh/visualizations/arrhenius-equation): 温度对反应速率影响的交互式可视化 - 探索活化能、指数因子和速率常数的关系
- [可逆反应 - Reversible Reaction](https://elysiatools.com/zh/visualizations/reversible-reaction): A ⇌ B 可逆反应动力学的交互式可视化 - 探索正逆反应速率、平衡常数和浓度随时间的变化
- [连续反应 - Consecutive Reaction](https://elysiatools.com/zh/visualizations/consecutive-reaction): A → B → C 连续反应动力学的交互式可视化 - 探索中间物浓度峰值、决速步和所有物种的完整演化
- [链式反应 - Chain Reaction](https://elysiatools.com/zh/visualizations/chain-reaction): 自由基链式反应聚合的交互式可视化 - 探索引发、增长、终止步骤，链增长动画和分子量分布
- [勒夏特列原理 - Le Chatelier's Principle](https://elysiatools.com/zh/visualizations/le-chateliers-principle): 勒夏特列原理的交互式可视化 - 探索浓度、压强和温度变化如何影响化学平衡，配合分子动力学动画展示平衡移动过程